The main news this week is, of course, the revelation that Democrats in the House of Representatives are formally beginning an impeachment inquiry into Pres. Donald Trump.
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi made the announcement after news broke that Trump asked the president of Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his son for allegations from when Biden’s son was on the board of a major natural gas company in Ukraine.
A couple of thoughts on this topic.
No. 1 — If the Democrats want to try to impeach Trump, more power to them. I’ve always said elections have consequences, and the Democrats won the majority in the House fair and square. If they want to use that power to try to impeach Trump, then go for it. Having said that …
No. 2 — It won’t work. Trump could very well be impeached by the House, but he will never be convicted by the full Senate. Actually impeaching a president and removing him from office is designed to be extremely difficult. While the Democrats have control of the House, Republicans control the Senate and it will take a two-thirds majority to convict and remove Trump from office. I hate to be the bearer of bad news to my Democrat friends, but it’s not going to happen.
No. 3 — I don’t think any of this will matter to the voters. If the Democrats hadn’t spent the last three years calling for Trump to be impeached every time he took a breath, maybe the voters would pay attention. But for three years Trump has been called every bad name in the book. And yet according to the polls, he has a higher approval rate right now that Obama did at the same time in his presidency. You can only cry wolf so many times before no one really listens anymore.
No. 4 — There two key issues to this ordeal as I see it. Did Trump withhold aid to Ukraine in an attempt for them to investigate Biden is the big one. I don’t know the answer. In Trump’s phone call, he doesn’t say do this or else. In fact, Trump seems more eager to ask for Ukraine’s help in investigating attempts to influence the 2016 election. The second issue is a little different. The whistleblower that initiated this whole thing claims the White House his materials that are usually more open in secret computers … or something like that. In time, this will get more attention. But I have my suspicions this is legit. After all, the Trump administration has repeatedly been victim to leaks from the intel community — usually to the New York Times or CNN. If I was president, I would hide stuff, too. My phone calls with other leaders should be private and should not show up in the next day’s paper. So sticking those places where only a few can see it seems pretty fair.
No. 5 — I doubt this will hurt Trump during his re-election campaign. Unless his impeached and voted out of office, I don’t see it hurting him much. Those who are considering voting for Trump or who are definitely voting for Trump probably believe the media and the Democrats have treated him unfairly over the last three years. This ordeal won’t change that perception. My guess is that is why Pelosi has been hesitant to consider impeachment for so long. She isn’t speaker because she makes political mistakes regularly.
No. 6 — The real loser in this whole ordeal is likely to be Biden. While he still leads the Democrat field in national polls, he has fallen behind Elizabeth Warren in some of the state that vote early. Hearing his name brought up over and over and over related to possible fraud that benefited his family will very likely hurt his campaign even more.
If I’m right, Warren would become the frontrunner in the race to take on Trump.